China's Growing Military Focus: Is Taiwan Next After Learning from Ukraine Crisis?

Analysis Suggests China Might Capitalize on Lessons from Ukraine, Raising Tensions with Taiwan

In the shadow of escalating military tensions between China and Taiwan, a prominent Taiwanese diplomat has raised concerns that China could draw lessons from the Ukraine conflict and potentially set its sights on Taiwan. The analysis highlights the need for vigilance in Taiwan and underscores the growing uncertainty surrounding China's intentions.

China's Evaluation of Ukraine Crisis

According to Wu Zhaoxie, Taiwan's Foreign Minister, the lack of transparency in China's internal policy decisions makes it difficult to accurately assess how China views Russia's setbacks in the Ukraine conflict. Wu acknowledges that deciphering China's assessment of Russia's military failures during the Ukrainian crisis is a challenging task due to the opacity of China's policy-making processes.

Implications for Taiwan

Despite the complexity, Wu Zhaoxie asserts that it's highly likely that China will use Russia's military setbacks as a lesson and bolster its operational capabilities for a potential invasion of Taiwan. Consequently, Taiwan must take this possibility seriously and make adequate preparations to safeguard its sovereignty.

Taiwan's Preparations and Response

Wu Zhaoxie reveals that Taiwan has been cautiously monitoring China's military activities, including airspace violations and naval intrusions near the median line of the Taiwan Strait and the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Taiwan is actively investing in asymmetric warfare capabilities through military reforms and arms acquisitions, aiming to enhance its defensive posture.

Furthermore, Taiwan is resolute in defending its core values of freedom and democracy. It acknowledges that its commitment to self-defense is paramount and remains steadfast in its determination to protect itself from any potential threats posed by China.

Concerns Over Authoritarian Cooperation

Wu Zhaoxie expresses concerns over the deepening cooperation among authoritarian states such as China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. This alliance raises alarms as it could potentially escalate global tensions and pose challenges to the established international order.

China's Distortion of International Norms

China's attempt to distort international norms is also a point of contention. By misrepresenting UN General Assembly Resolution 2758, which led to China's UN membership in 1971, and claiming Taiwan as a part of its territory, China aims to undermine Taiwan's sovereignty and further its own interests.

Expanding Ambitions and Global Impact

China's expansionist ambitions, particularly its attempts to extend influence beyond the First Island Chain, are causing concerns among neighboring countries. This expansion not only generates regional tensions but also holds the potential for geopolitical conflicts with far-reaching global repercussions.

Global Economic Ramifications

Wu Zhaoxie emphasizes the critical role Taiwan plays in global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry. With around 60% of global semiconductor manufacturing and over 92% market share in advanced semiconductors, Taiwan's significance cannot be overlooked. A military conflict in the Taiwan Strait could trigger a catastrophic disruption in global economic supply networks.

The Warning and Implications

Wu Zhaoxie issued a stern warning that if China were to blockade Taiwan, it would constitute an act of war under international law. Such a move would undoubtedly provoke strong international condemnation and have dire consequences for the global economy, potentially overshadowing even the impact of the Ukraine crisis.

As China's military intentions continue to raise concerns, Taiwan finds itself at a critical juncture. The specter of a potential conflict looms large, with China's actions and rhetoric reverberating across the global stage. The world watches closely, hoping for peaceful resolutions and diplomatic efforts to prevail over instability and conflict.